The Lions are imploding amidst a hail of inexcusable personal fouls. The Bears have temporarily misplaced their two most important offensive players in Matt Forte and Jay Cutler, and dropped a game to the woeful Chiefs on Sunday. The Chiefs themselves are in the midst of an awful 5-7 season behind essentially their third quarterback, Tyler Palko, and the Oakland Raiders allowed themselves to be trounced by the moribund Miami Dolphins last Sunday.
No, if there's a significant test in the latter half of Green Bay's schedule, the Packers just passed it. After a dramatic 38-35 win over the Giants pushed their record to 12-0, the possibility of 16-0 officially and immediately became the NFL media's biggest topic for the next month.
Every pundit and talking head out there has an opinion on whether the Packers should rest their starters in the last game or two and, in so doing, give up the chance to go 16-0. There's definitely no need for me to add mine, but that's what Patch gives me bandwidth to do, so why not. (Plus, I should be doing homework, so writing about football is a welcome distraction; due apologies to my professors.)
It's not like there's a blueprint on what to do when you're nearing the end of an undefeated season. The 2007 New England Patriots played all-out in their regular-season finale, winning a 38-35 thriller over those same New York Giants, and ended up losing to the Giants in Super Bowl XLII. Meanwhile, the 14-0 Indianapolis Colts won their first fourteen games in '09 before playing Curtis Painter at QB the rest of the way. They came to the Super Bowl 16-2 before losing to the Saints. So there's no real precedent for Mike McCarthy to follow.
The biggest, and only, argument against playing your best men in the regular-season finale (assuming the Packers win their next three) is avoiding a catastrophic injury. The Detroit Lions are coming to Lambeau Field in Week 17, and the nightmare scenario would be them planting Aaron Rodgers in the turf and giving him his second concussion in two years at their hands.
There are plenty of reasons for playing all out that people usually cite: respect for the game, giving the fans who paid for their tickets full value, fundamental integrity of football, etc, etc. I would imagine that to McCarthy, all of that is a load of bull. The only important reasons for playing, to him, have to do with what's best for the Packers when thinking about playoffs. Here's a few:
-The Packers will most likely have a first-round bye, meaning that if McCarthy rests his starters in the finale, they'll have had three weeks between games. That's a lot of time to heal up, but also a lot of time for the team to lose its rhythm and potentially get rusty.
-They're playing the Bears in Week 16 and the Lions in Week 17. Seeing the Packers intentionally playing at half-strength and losing to either team would be galling for the Packers themselves (not to mention the fans), and who wants to give your division rival credit for spoiling a perfect season?
-Last year, the Bears went all-out to knock the Packers out of postseason contention. They failed, met in the NFC Championship game and suffered a crushing defeat. If either the Bears or the Lions sneak into the playoffs on the Packers' coattails, there's a chance Green Bay could suffer the same fate. Better, in the cutthroat world of the NFL, to kick both teams while they're down (insert obligatory Ndamukong Suh wisecrack here).
-The most important reason, though, is that it's just not in Mike McCarthy's personality, nor is it in Aaron Rodgers'. There's no indulgence, softness or yielding in either of them. If the Packers are 15-0 after Week 16, I can't see McCarthy doing anything but going for the Lions' throats, even if the game is meaningless in terms of playoff positioning. I don't expect him to be stupid about it; if the Packers are up by 30 after the second quarter, there's no reason to keep Rodgers out there the rest of the way, but I fully expect McCarthy to go all out to squelch the Lions.
Scott Tisdel
12:01 am on Wednesday, December 7, 2011
Hey Andy, that first paragraph is worthy of the master writer Bob McGinn himself! (The rest of the article ain't bad either.) Keep it up!
Terry
8:34 am on Wednesday, December 7, 2011
I just hope that by now McCarthy and the management have realized what a stupid,stupid strategy it was to let Cullen Jenkins go, and think that young punks were going to fill that gap. And losing Jolly just exposed our horrible pass rush all the more. Really? They thought letting Jenkins go, and not getting someone almost as good would make this team defenxe ok??? Disgusting!
Herbert
8:20 am on Thursday, December 8, 2011
I almost hope for at least one loss during the regular season, I don't like the odds if the Packers were to go undefeated entering the playoffs. If you take last years run to the Super Bowl plus this seasons wins that already puts us at 17 - 0. That's good enough for me.
Herbert
8:23 am on Thursday, December 8, 2011
One more thing... Once the team secures home field throughout do you sit or play the starters and try to keep that record perfect or keep your players healthy for the playoffs??
Matthew Schroeder
9:32 am on Thursday, December 8, 2011
@Herbert: You don't sit your starters as the 14-0 Colts did a couple years ago. But you are more conservative with injured players, and if you get a 21-3 halftime lead you're not afraid to sit Rodgers and play Flynn, even if it means losing the game.
@Terry: The defensive line thing is a concern because players wear down. I could see the Packers losing in the playoffs because a team manages to run through our tired defensive line for 200 yards and keeps the offense off the field.
Mark Schaaf
12:31 pm on Thursday, December 8, 2011
I honestly think the Packers could beat the Bears and Lions with Flynn. But I agree with Matt, you can't sit them completely but you do have to get more conservative than usual.
I've been pleased with everything I've heard from McCarthy and the players regarding the undefeated issue.
Carl Engelking
1:10 pm on Thursday, December 8, 2011
Here's a thought - and it came up when Indy was going for their undefeated season - the Packers play 3 of their next 4 at home. Do you sit some of the skill players if you've got 4 to 10 inches of heavy snowfall in the forecast and footing isn't good at all and the risk for injury is higher? How much should weather weigh into the coaching staff's consideration?
Adam W. McCoy
1:38 pm on Thursday, December 8, 2011
Sitting the Packers' skill players once homefield is secured isn't the best avenue, in my opinion. If Rodgers and company sit the last couple games of the regular season, and the Packers have a first-round bye, they wouldn't play in a real game for close to a month. I believe Rodgers can turn it on whenever he needs to, but would other guys come in ready? The trend over the last couple years in the NFL has been the teams that are hot entering the playoffs reach the Super Bowl--I'm nervous the Packers kill their momentum by sitting their skill players.
Terry
1:46 pm on Thursday, December 8, 2011
all of you yuppie 'experts'--did you forget we have a thousand injuries as we speak??? Who do you bozos think can play if you sit the starters??? And guys in jail?? And guys hurting?? Haaaaaah????
Herbert
1:52 pm on Thursday, December 8, 2011
@Terry: The Packers had tons of injuries last season and won the Super Bowl. No team in professional sports can use that as an excuse anymore why there team is not winning.
Terry
2:00 pm on Thursday, December 8, 2011
Hey, @Terry, can you spell Peyton Manning???? Hah???
Look, we have a whole bunch of subs playing now-- If you rest or bench them who do you clowns think is going to play???
Dustin Block
1:03 pm on Monday, December 12, 2011
You gotta go for the undefeated season. Pull it off and you're not just back-to-back Super Bowl champs ... you're the best in NFL history.