@Bob -

Hoffa would agree if only Ryan was truly "as hard core right-wing" as you perceive him to be. In reality, Ryan is more establishment than anything. The hard core right-wing would constitute guys like Jim DeMint, Rand Paul, Mike Lee, Gary Johnson, Ron Paul, etc.

It's true though that Romney is in fact an establishment moderate and that the Party is pushing him to sell himself as being more right than he truly is. You're also right in that they don't need to do that in order to pull the base, as the base is so anti-Obama, the Party could be running McCain again and still pull all the base in this election.

Walker suggests that the last couple of years have changed things though for the independent middle, feeling that if Romney wants to pull those voters, as he needs to in order to beat Obama, that Romney needs to really push a strong fiscal conservative message, as that's what got Walker to where he is today.

Frankly, Hoffa thinks that Walker is right. If Romney wanted to push a more liberal social message, Hoffa thinks that would be fine and would actually help him to pick up many of the independent middle, but he needs to stay conservative on his fiscal message in order to keep the base and the middle.

Whether he actually is or not, he's perceived that way (from my vantage point, he's definitely not a moderate) and putting him on the ticket made about as much sense as putting Palin on the ticket in '08. When it's the swing voters who will make the difference, you don't want to alienate them for no good reason. And really, there was no, true good reason to put Ryan on the ticket. He's more useful in Congress than he would be as a VP.

I think Walker's survival of the recall process is a repudiation of the recall process rather than a blanket endorsement of his policies and actions. And if the state, overall, isn't in better shape by the end of his term, he's just as vulnerable as any other elected official to the whims of a dissatisfied electorate.

There are people in middle who are frightened by the state the economy and a ticket that, at this point, swings to hard in the direction of self sufficiency in the face of a situation way out of their control is enough to cause even those in that category who are fiscal conservatives to give pause to a decision to vote in that direction.

You can't be an effective leader, obviously, if you can't get elected. Romney has a better chance of doing so w/o Ryan's plan around his neck - unless there truly are people on the right that are so idealistic that they'd go so far as not to vote for Romney with a moderate running mate and effectively hand the election to Obama. If that's the case, we're screwed either way we go.

@Bob -

Hoffa concurs - Ryan was not the smart choice, but it was the bold choice, just as Palin was. And if Palin had performed a little better for McCain, things may have been a bit different today. Hoffa also concurs that Ryan was more useful in Congress than he could ever hope of being as VP, however, there are others in Congress, just as effective, that will step up to fill the void - Hoffa has no doubt of this.

"I think Walker's survival of the recall process is a repudiation of the recall process rather than a blanket endorsement of his policies and actions."

Hoffa's going to have to really disagree with you on this one! While Hoffa wouldn't necessarily call it a 'blanket' endorsement, he also doesn't buy the media/poll notion that it was more about voting against recalls. You honestly believe that people who stand adamantly opposed to Walker and his policies voted for him in the recall just because they opposed recalls - COME ON!!! Sorry, but Hoffa just doesn't buy that.

"And if the state, overall, isn't in better shape by the end of his term, he's just as vulnerable as any other elected official to the whims of a dissatisfied electorate."

Ordinarily, yes. However, Obama's current performance in the polls, despite his dismal record, may be proving that the rules of the game have changed.

As for the remainder of your premise, Hoffa sees where you're coming from but doesn't see it as absolute as you appear to. Definitely a good one to watch though!

Yes, I do think it was essentially a repudiation of the recall process. Or if you like, a rejection of the antics and motives of those who engaged in the protests, the legal challenges and, ultimately, the recall process itself. I think the recall organizers over-estimated the public's tolerance of their antics and engagement in their cause. They were viewed, to a large extent, as sore losers. I think the motivation to re-elect Scott Walker was more about people being ticked off at the recall effort and it being an attempt to redo 2010 by a group of self-interested spoiled brats than anything. The fact that the DNC wasn't all in on it from the start tells me that, from their vantage point, they could see that was the way it was gonna play out as well. They had plenty of money to throw in this direction if they thought it was worth it.

2014 is going to be more about results. It'll be a real election. I don't think it ever pays to be overly confident that a candidate has a "mandate". Scott Walker's not going to be given extra credit for surviving a recall effort. They'll be back, just as loud and belligerent and as fired up as they were for the recall process. The Republican party in this state better be ready for a battle of equal magnitude, sans the benefit being the target of an unnecessary and unpopular recall effort affords.

I don't think you can compare Obama on a national level to Walker on a state level. State politics hit closer to home where you can see things happen. Obama and the Democrats have successfully convinced a good portion of America that, nearly 4 years down the line, everything that's bad is still Bush's fault, that the modest growth we've experienced is Obama's doing, that ACA isn't really going end up being a gigantic cluster-you-know-what that's going to, ultimately, end up increasing the cost of health care in this country. They've convinced folks that Romney's some sort of combination of Mormon automaton and CEO from hell and that it really wasn't NAFTA or favored nation status granted to China or the fact that we, as consumers, gravitate towards goods produced inexpensively (because they CAN be, thanks to the fact that there is a China and technology makes doing so easy) or that entire job categories have been, literally wiped out by technology and will continue to be (think Siri gone wild and look into 3D printing - that last one is going to wipe out a least a couple of industries I'm familiar with) - nope, it's Romney. He's the poster boy for job loss. And with the added bonus of Ryan, now, not only are all your jobs going to be shipped overseas by Romney, Ryan's going to leave you hanging out to dry fending for yourself. Don't have to look any farther than this carnival sideshow to see how that line of thinking has been absorbed and repeated endlessly by the hapless.

@Bob -

Brainwashing is indeed effective!

Hoffa only hopes that a majority of the nation proves to be smarter than the susceptible non-thinking lemming types. Hoffa would like to believe that the recall here was more a reflection of that reality - people actually thinking, as opposed to a purely emotional reaction to a temper tantrum.

If Hoffa is wrong, then as a nation, we really are screwed!

BTW - If you haven't heard, Jesse Ventura has committed to running for President in 2016 as an independent if his supporters are able to get him ballot access in all 50 states and in DC.

Or he could be just speaking his mind on something. Which, of course, would be different than the usual stuff we see in the media, particularly on Sundays, when the parties send out their messengers with the week's talking points. I guess it's just easier to digest when everyone is on message.

Not everything is a Koch/ALEC/1%-er/TeaGOP/puppetmaster conspiracy in the making.

@Bob I have no doubt that he is speaking his mind --- and on many topics that would be welcome by most, but on this topic, when it does damage to his own candidate, I think he is not biting his tongue so he will have wiggle room later.

As for conspiracy, I would say it is only a conspiracy of One !! Being Scott Walker.

There's nothing in it for Walker. What difference does it make? He's a rising star, he's not part of the ticket. He's not hurt, either way. He could effectively wait 'til after the election to weigh in if he were being that calculating. What if Romney were to win w/o changing and Walker was wrong? That would hardly serve him well.

I think you're over-thinking it, Dave.

So he is, or isn't an ALEC puppet? I think you have been wrong all along, Bren.

"If Jesse Ventura proved anything in Minnesota, it's that the independent middle tend to be fiscally conservative and socially liberal."

I believe that is very insightful JH. And it's given both sides of the road fits over the years.

@Terry -

Just calling it like Hoffa sees it ;-)

Nice analysis mau!

BTW - Did you know that Jesse Ventura is running in 2016?

I read that further up the blog. I don't think he will go anywhere after being Governor. I am by no means a Romney fan but I think he is liberal enough to get the parties working together. Unlike the present POTUS who is like an Eddie Haskel (Leave It To Beaver), who causes trouble in the background and puts on a show to the public.

@Mau ---- I would liken American voters to a boxer.

Every boxer has the perfect fight plan, until he gets hit in the jaw .....

Voters talk about wanting conservatives until they get hit in the jaw with what that actually means --- ie. the Great Recession !!

Voters may talk one way, and especially like to think they want the center -- but in reality, they will re-elect Obama, and maybe even want him to go a little further Left.

After 47% of Americans can't all be wrong :-)

I liken the American voters (and the % is growing) to blood suckers or a wood tick. They gorge and gorge on the free flowing blood. When the bloods runs out they fall off and flail around until die.

There is no term that is more irritating than Great Recession. And worse yet when they try to compare it to the Depression. There were no soup lines, no conservation corp, nobody was stuffing newspaper in their shoes to plug holes, people weren't putting their children in orphanages....... In fact instead they were standing in line to get iphones, electronic games, sports & concert tickets, shoes, toys and gadgets for Christmas.....

As far as I can remember 47% is not the majority. You may be right that Obama will be re-elected because he keeps promising everything for free. A promise that can not be sustained. And things that he could possibly do as a lame duck will come back and blind side them (us) in time.

@JRH, did you see this?
http://www.thedailysheeple.com/un-small-arms-treaty-passes-while-media-sleeps_092012