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President Barack Obama: 'Real Change is Hard,' But Worth the Fight

During campaign stop with singer Katy Perry in Milwaukee Saturday that drew an estimated 20,000 people, Obama says: "I am here today because there is more work to do."

 

With just days to go before what will likely be a close election both in Wisconsin and nationally, thousands of people filled the Delta Center in Milwaukee Saturday afternoon to hear President Barack Obama promise to keep fighting for the middle class.

As soon as he took the podium before a crowd estimated at 20,000, Obama promised to get help to the victims of Hurricane Sandy and asked those in attendance to pray and donate to the Red Cross, if they were able to do so.

His speech then turned to his campaign theme of “Forward." His primary message was about continuing the policies of his administration to provide a voice for the middle class while also growing and supporting a strong middle class.


Photo Gallery: Images from Obama's visit

Live Blog Replay: A look back at our real-time coverage


Obama also touched on the strength of the American spirit, but his remarks made the most impact with the crowd when he acknowledged that a lot of his supporters in 2008 got caught up in the idea of change without really recognizing how difficult it would be.

“Back in 2008, a lot of of folks got swept up in the excitement of change,” he said. “Sometimes we get frustrated by speed of change, but real change is hard. Change we believe in is a change in the system.”

Before Obama took the stage, several other prominent Democrats — including Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, U.S. Sen. Herb Kohl and U.S. Rep. Tammy Baldwin — delivered remarks centered around the theme of moving the country forward instead of returning to what they said were the failed policies of the past.

Pop singer Katie Perry entertained before the president took the stage, where a tight red, white and blue dress with the Obama campaign logo and the word "Forward" on it.

Among the those in the crowd was Leslie Peterson of Brookfield, who agreed Obama needs another term to continue moving the country out of the recession.

“The president needs another four years to recover from the policies of the previous administration and the Republicans who supported him,” she said.

Obama asked the crowd to continue fighting because without a strong middle class, the country cannot succeed.

“We’ve worked hard these last four years, and I am here today because there is more work to do,” he said. "Our work is not yet done because this nation cannot succeed without a vibrant middle class where everybody does their fair share; where everybody is playing by same rules. That’s why you elected me in 2008  and why I’m running for second term.”

Related Topics: Barack Obama, Katy Perry, Milwaukee, election 2012, november 2012 election, participate 2012, and presidential election

BassGreat

4:59 pm on Saturday, November 3, 2012

A great day to be an American!

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Annie Nominous

11:25 pm on Saturday, November 3, 2012

Will you be so happy on November 6th?

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John Wilson

1:16 pm on Sunday, November 4, 2012

Joe Bobby –

SPOT ON!

Given what King George and "GFY" [ See URL] Cheney left him, President Obama has done a fantastic job!

http://politicalhumor.about.com/b/2004/06/25/cheney-to-leahy-go-fk-yourself.htm

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The Anti-Alinsky

7:10 pm on Sunday, November 4, 2012

Troll Joe Bobby from Alemeda, California wrote:
“Thank you, President Obama for your many achievements, despite strong Republican obstructions:”
“+ Led the killing of Osama Bin Laden.”
Navy Seal Team 6 did that while Obama did NOTHING in the situation room

“+ Improved US relationships with most allies.”
By starting his Presidency with an apology tour

“+ Directed killing of several leaders of Al Qaida.”
As was done under Bush-43

“+ Implemented harsh sanctions on Iran.”
Yet they are still proceeding with Uranium enrichment

“+ Brought together coalition to remove dictator Gaddhafi from power in Libya.”
All he did was jump on a Revolution well under way and send up a few drones.

“+ Implemented Obamacare to provide healthcare for millions of people who previously did not have health coverage, and to mandate several health cost-cutting measures.”
Which is now costing an average $3,000 per family (and more to come)

“+ Ended the discriminatory Don’t Ask Don’t Tell policy in the military.
+ Supports same-sex marriage.
+ Supports the equal pay act to provide equal pay for women and men.”
With the economy as sucky as it is, are these really issues?

“+ Led the nation out of worst recession (gotten into by Bush) in many decades.”
Then why is our economic outlook so bleak, and REAL unemployment around 12%

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The Anti-Alinsky

7:10 pm on Sunday, November 4, 2012

continued:
“+ Implemented stimulus act to revive economy.”
Which only cost us $110,000 to create each job. Which could explain why our economic outlook is so bleak.

“+ Ended war in Iraq, an unnecessary and unbudgeted war started by George W Bush.
+ Began drawdown of war in Afghanistan.”
Saddam Hussein was a threat with WMDs, so it was necessary to get rid of him. The wars against Saddam Hussein and the Taliban only lasted a few weeks. We are fighting against the next brutal dictator in each of those countries.

“+ Passed necessary Wall Street reform to prevent future financial collapse.
All he did was add more stifling regulation

“+ Helped turn around auto industry.”
All B.O. did was prop up the unions. GM and Chrysler would have been better off to follow Ford’s example

“+ And, much, much more!”
like Benghazi (wait, I thought we were now loved in the Middle East)
Increasing the national debt by 6 TRILLION dollars
Increasing annual spending by 27%
Increasing annual deficit instead of halving it AS PROMISED!

“Let's go FORWARD!, not back to the Bush years!”
Yup, just keep charging forward to the Lenin/Stalin years, they will be so wonderful!

Michael McClusky

5:06 pm on Saturday, November 3, 2012

Why can't Obama ever talk about his record? I mean, he thinks of himself as being so blasted wonderful.

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Annie Nominous

12:00 am on Sunday, November 4, 2012

It is not about his record, but about his pop-star celebrity. Sadly, too many people are swayed by this. Just listen how he changes his dialect depending on the crowd he is speaking to. And observe how he hops down the stairs of Air Force One...very un-presidential, but oh "so cool."

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Michael McClusky

12:22 am on Sunday, November 4, 2012

@Annie Nominous Someone said the other day that this election will be decided by the ignorant. Food for thought.

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oak creek resident

5:13 pm on Sunday, November 4, 2012

I I I ME ME ME. Obama is the culmination of AA.

The Anti-Alinsky

5:11 pm on Saturday, November 3, 2012

TOP TEN REASONS NOT TO RE-ELECT BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA
====================================================
10)Obamacare has increased my insurance premiums by 12% just for next year!
9)2009 Apology tour.
(where were Springteen and Katy Perry then?)
8)27% more each year in Federal spending
7)Government Motors
6)Jobs created by B.O.'s stimulus only cost us $110,000/job
(if you believe B.O.'s jobs numbers)
5)Median household income down $4,000/yr
4)46.7 MILLION people on food stamps.
3)Deficit doubled, not halved.
2) 6 TRILLION in new debt (3 times Bush's rate)

and the number 1 reason not to re-elect Barack Hussein Obama
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1) Unemployment still at 7.9%.
(not counting people that gave up looking)

The Anti-Alinsky

5:11 pm on Saturday, November 3, 2012

TOP TEN REASONS TO ELECT MITT ROMNEY
====================================
10) Improved Massachusettes economy while Governor
9) Knows how to create jobs
(actually that's all we need, but let's continue)
8) Has proven he can work with others across the aisle
(instead of ramming bad legislation through without reading it or letting other's read it)
7) Will repeal Obamacare
(maybe I can get my 12% back)
6) Went out of his way to hire qualified women in his cabinet
5) Will ease burdensome regulations that hurt this economy while keeping productive ones in place
4) Not only delivered a budget, but balanced it four times.
3) Actually had a plan to improve the United States
2) Will put United States interests ahead of all else

and the number 1 reason to elect Mitt Romney
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1) Unemployment still at 7.9%.
(not counting people that gave up looking)

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alt ideas needed

5:21 pm on Saturday, November 3, 2012

wow, Anti-Alinsky, I have changed my mind because of you. I know of hundreds of others who also think you do great work. Can you please copy and paste your opinions and original ideas every where possible, because you still need to convince a lot of people that you are right. Thanks for being you. I can tell that you are really striving to make things better.

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The Anti-Alinsky

5:35 pm on Saturday, November 3, 2012

Glad to see someone has finally seen my genius.

Actually, the reason's I stated can't be stated enough. The B.O. campaign has jumped the rails repeatedly in an attempt to distract us from the real issues (Big Bird, binders full of women...)

The real issues in this campaign have to stay at the top of ANY discussion!

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Mafia Mike

6:35 am on Sunday, November 4, 2012

B.O. campaign = Body Odor campaign. Get the stench out of the White House! Romney/Ryan 2012

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John Wilson

11:34 am on Sunday, November 4, 2012

The Anti-Alinsky -

"8) Has proven he can work with others across the aisle"

Yes, hmmm, with an 87% Democratic legislator in MA, he issued 844 vetoes; the legislator overturned 750+ of those, most unanimously. He – Willard – created his own personal elevator, so he would not have to discuss legislation or be with anyone on his ride to/from his office. In addition, you thought he only had an elevator for his BMW’s and his wife’s Cadillac’s. He never even learned any of the Republican legislator’s names. He left office in MA with a 35% - King George like – approval rating. He left the state 47th in job creation and 1.2 BILLION in debt.

Willard is nothing more than anti-social, egomaniacal, anti-bipartisanship, and the typical CEO BOSS; it is “my way or the highway”… sort of sound familiar?

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The Anti-Alinsky

6:17 pm on Sunday, November 4, 2012

Comrade Wilson has been reading the DailyKOS again.

Did your "research" tell you that those were line item vetos (intending to save tax-payers money by eliminating waste)?

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John Wilson

8:29 pm on Sunday, November 4, 2012

The Anti-Alinsky –

Willard never knew or wanted to know how government worked, he only wanted to play CEO BOSS...

"The reality of his time as Governor was quite different. Mitt Romney had the dubious distinction of vetoing over 800 measures passed by that Democrat-controlled legislature. According to the Boston Globe , in a television ad for his 2008 presidential campaign, Romney even gloated about it. ''I know how to veto,” he said in the ad. “I like vetoes. I've vetoed hundreds of spending appropriations as governor.'' This endeared him to neither Democrats nor Republicans, according to the Globe.

What he doesn't say is the Legislature overrode those vetoes almost at will. When the House decided to challenge him, Romney was overridden 99.6 percent of the time: 775 to 3, according to the House minority leader's office. In the Senate, Romney was overridden every time, often unanimously.

Frustrated by not being able to manage the state like he did Bain Capital, Romney spent most of his final year outside Massachusetts, laying the groundwork for a national campaign. According to Think Progress , “Romney spent 212 days out of state — more than four days each week, on average” in 2006. He then left office with a 34 percent approval rating."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/30/mitt-romney-flooding_n_2042886.html

http://www.alternet.org/election-2012/democracy-danger-signs-mitt-romneys-800-vetoes-mass-governor

Stormy Weather

5:17 pm on Saturday, November 3, 2012

And what did Obama say? "Votings the best Revenge". Once again, Obama goes negative, and doesn't sound Presidential!

And what did Mitt Romney say? "Vote for Love of Country!" It's very clear, who cares about our Country and who will be a better President... Vote Romney/Ryan 2012!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ShdiYQ1EHvA

AWD

5:46 pm on Saturday, November 3, 2012

Obama quote: "Voting is the best revenge." There it is again, Obama’s racism front and center. Someone call me when the new civil war starts. This is reminiscent of the behavior right before the last one.

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alt ideas needed

5:51 pm on Saturday, November 3, 2012

how is the statement "Voting is the best revenge" considered racists?

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Annie Nominous

11:35 pm on Saturday, November 3, 2012

It is a sign of desperation. The uniter is really the divider.

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Annie Nominous

11:41 pm on Saturday, November 3, 2012

Have you read any of the hateful Twitter comments against Romney? The comments are horrible and threatening.
http://twitchy.com/2012/11/02/as-election-day-nears-obama-supporters-step-up-riot-threats/

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Joseph Robert

8:57 am on Sunday, November 4, 2012

Sure better than Romney's divisive and hateful "47 percent" comment.

Repubs are desperate, but still Romney will lose!

Go Vote!

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John Wilson

11:41 am on Sunday, November 4, 2012

alt ideas needed -

You have to remember that the President Obama haters know that they have lost and they are oh so desperate. "Wishful Thinking" guides these delusional folks.

Hence, "Voting is the best revenge" is obviously racist... it is ALL THEY HAVE...

Nuitari

5:51 pm on Saturday, November 3, 2012

FIRE OBAMA. He has committed TREASON on numerous accounts.

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AWD

5:56 pm on Saturday, November 3, 2012

A controversial button made its way around the Democratic convention that said “once you vote black, you never go back,” Obama should wear that on the campaign trail, being the big racist he is.

alt ideas needed

6:09 pm on Saturday, November 3, 2012

AWD - you did not answer the question - how is the statement "Voting is the best revenge" considered racists?

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Annie Nominous

11:33 pm on Saturday, November 3, 2012

Because if Mitt Romney would have said that, the mainstream media would have been all over the comment...get it? Double Standard!

alt ideas needed

6:15 pm on Saturday, November 3, 2012

AWD - never mind - after looking at your comment history, I can tell that it is you that is the racists, and a bigot too. just a small mind trying to get some attention by trolling. have a nice day.

Annie Nominous

11:32 pm on Saturday, November 3, 2012

Wow...20,000 people attend a FREE concert...is that impressive? Truthfully, I believe the Obama campaign did not realize that the Wisconsin voting rules changed and that early voting officially ended yesterday. The misinformed campaign was hoping the Katy Perry fans would go early vote today...NOT!

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John Wilson

12:03 pm on Sunday, November 4, 2012

Annie Nominous -

You can still vote early with an absentee ballot at the courthouse, and all of Friday was also open... slam, bam, thank you, mam...

Phil

7:15 am on Sunday, November 4, 2012

Obama = Loser
Romney = Winner

KM

8:32 am on Sunday, November 4, 2012

Didn't Obama leave WI Democrats and the union stranded during the Walker recall? He was no where to be found.

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Bob McBride

8:46 am on Sunday, November 4, 2012

That's a good point, KM. Doesn't matter - KATY PERRY!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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John Wilson

12:14 pm on Sunday, November 4, 2012

KM -

President Obama's strategy for the Walker Recall was a wise one; he did not want to alienate the voters of Wisconsin.

a) He knew most of the population in Wisconsin did not really believe in the idea of a RECALL, even though it was in the state’s Constitution – and the recall, really, was more about the recall, than it was about Walker.

b) He also had better things to do for his Presidential Election.

c) He knew – as most rational people did – that his presence here would only hurt him and not help Barrett… this was all sort of a no-brainer.

Sorry I had to spell out the obvious for YOU…

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KM

1:43 pm on Sunday, November 4, 2012

John- So what I hear you saying is the WI recall was not important to him but it was important to everyone else. He had better things to do besides help the people who got him elected and he didn't want to be associated with the losing team.

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John Wilson

2:33 pm on Sunday, November 4, 2012

KM -

What you read is what you read; I did not "say" anything to you.

The Recall was clearly a purely STATE issue, NOT a Presidential Election issue.

Had President Obama gotten involved with the STATE OF Wisconsin’s GOVERNORSHIP issue, I am sure you President Obama Haters would have accused him of FEDERAL INTERFERENCE in your STATE GOVERNMENT!

I’ve really written all I am going to on this subject…

KM – So, what I understand from your writing is you do not understand simple declarative sentences. Sorry, you should probably think seriously about attending a remedial English comprehension class…perhaps you may take Bob McBride with you...

Thanks for your enlightened comment.

Stormy Weather

8:43 am on Sunday, November 4, 2012

Usually Patch is pretty fair, but 34 photos for the Obama story??? Here's a link to The Patch coverage of Romney's visit to West Allis the other day. It only included 10 photos, and of course the story wasn't featured front and center like the Obama visit. In fact, it all but disappeared the next day. I'm sure this Obama story will disappear too...

http://caledonia.patch.com/articles/romney-makes-closing-arguments-to-wisconsin-voters

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Patch_comments_icon

Jim Price

11:11 am on Sunday, November 4, 2012

Stormy, only six of the photos on the Obama story were taken by a Patch editor; the rest were uploaded by readers, a free option we offer to all. Half the photos on the Romney story were also uploaded by a reader. We do strive for fairness and balance in the content we at Patch produce, but we do not limit content provided by others.

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John Wilson

11:45 am on Sunday, November 4, 2012

Stormy Weather -

That's 10-photos too many... the guy is absolutely creepy!

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Nuitari

2:15 pm on Sunday, November 4, 2012

Stormy Weather, don't hold your breath waiting for equal coverage from Patch. While I think they are fair at best, they certainly believe leaning left sells more.

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John Wilson

6:26 pm on Sunday, November 4, 2012

oak creek resident -

Patch's TOS:

You are solely responsible for the Content that you post on the Service or transmit to other users. Without limitation, you agree that you will not post or transmit to other users anything that contains Content that:

• is defamatory, abusive, obscene, profane or offensive;
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• violates any party’s right of publicity or right of privacy;
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• contains any advertising, promotional materials, "junk mail," "spam," "chain letters," "pyramid schemes," or any other form of solicitation.

You have broken at least half of these, just today... BYE!

Daniel S.

9:28 am on Sunday, November 4, 2012

I must admit, BO sure has way with words capable of enticing people into the continued sinking ways of his past 4 years. Fortunately, many citizens realize his Hope & Change did not bring us closer to breaking with the past, but closer to the brink of complete bankruptcy and collapse. Now he wants to move Forward, is it time to jump off the cliff? You now what I see, I see GM building a bunch of junk that they are selling at a loss, Chrysler bought out by Fiat, a company that left the USA decades ago, because no one wanted their cars. Failed policies in the Middle East that have given power & weapons to unstable Rebel factions and more loss of Freedom and Civil Rights, with more of the same on the way if he's re-elected. There is no doubt that change is needed, it needs to start with the man in charge being relieved of duty. Stop The Sinking.

NObama 2012

9:36 am on Sunday, November 4, 2012

Obama has a record. A record of disaster. One so hideous that his reelection campaign strategy was forced to rely on Big Bird, sluts and negative campaigning. Hardly a position any American President would want to be in. Obama’s yet to reach 50% of the American people. Benghazi? The truth now clearly shows Obama was forewarned of the attacks and was aware when they took place but did nothing to save the lives of those brave men. That an American President would do nothing help fellow Americans under direct fire is unfathomable and should not result in another term in office. Vote Romney! Mitt Romney will return Americans to work; he will open oil fields and enforce American interests overseas. He will actually do well for his country, unlike his corrupt predecessor Obama. He will act as an American President.

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GearHead

12:01 pm on Sunday, November 4, 2012

Ann never said that, but you just did. Thanks for projecting your own racism!

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John Wilson

12:17 pm on Sunday, November 4, 2012

GearHead -

Ann told me that just last night...

Nick Poulos

11:56 am on Sunday, November 4, 2012

@AWD & @NObama: I hope your bigotry can be healed.
The Nation needs Obama now more than ever. Apparently the root cause for your bigotry and that of your fellow patchers is a desire to exclude americans who do not fit your "mental model" of Americans. If we created a BSC or Balanced Scorecard for America, however, we would see clearly that Obama has turned the Ship of State around.
When Obama inherited the Ship of State, it had no rudder, no propeller, and no control panel. the control panel has been refitted and put in place, despite efforts to stop progress. The Rudder has been replaced, and we have turned this aircraft carrier around from the financial ruin brought about by the Republicans, the Tea Party and the Randians. Presently, Romney is exhibiting the worst characteristics of a salesman: trying desperately to cover his tracks of lies with more mendacity: his disingenuousness is appalling: all you have to do is see through the lies and ask questions. Romney cares only for the few. and, the Truth is not something the Republicans even know any longer: Truth is unhiddenness: For the Republicans all is concealed behind veils. Finally, consider this: If Romney were in power today, our fellow Americans along the East coast would be left completely on their own: the Randian self-centered way. Therein lies the real problem with the Republican ticket- their adherence to the immoral ethics of Ayn Rand and her Objectivist philosophy. Reject Romney Ryan. Re-elect Obama.

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GearHead

12:06 pm on Sunday, November 4, 2012

Nick, it must suck to be you, knowing your anti-Randian blather moves nobody. Do you think 8:00 is too early to light my victory cigar?

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John Wilson

12:20 pm on Sunday, November 4, 2012

GearHead -

It that the same cigar you stole from President William Jefferson Clinton?

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AWD

1:23 pm on Sunday, November 4, 2012

I will vote for Romney because he is a White adult. Obama is an overgrown adolescent, affirmative-action parasite who is the enemy of his own country and the White people who built it. We must publicly reject the nefarious Obama on Election Day 2012. It's too late to save what we had four years ago. It is gone. Our only choice is to take back the power on November 6th and start rebuilding from scratch. Our great Republican victories have been 1980, 1994 and 2010. Each one made me feel more alive, and more hopeful about the future of liberty. It would be nice to add 2012 to this list.

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Veryvila

4:12 pm on Sunday, November 4, 2012

Great comment Nick. We do need President Obama and Democrats to win and we need republicans to get to work doing what they are elected to do which is work for the American people, not for corporations, not for the wealthy, not for the oil and gas companies. We need to fight for public education, for all the policies for the good of all Americans that Democrats are coming up with.

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Daniel S.

4:45 pm on Sunday, November 4, 2012

Read what you wrote: "The Control Panel" and yes, you are right he is doing more controlling; but we don't want control panels, we want a leader. Hitler was a control panel person. We've returned from financial ruin . . .huh, we're in deeper debt than ever, I don't see that as a return from ruin, but diving deeper into the ocean of darkness.
We are being led to the cliff and soon will be told to jump, VOTE NObama.

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John Wilson

6:37 pm on Sunday, November 4, 2012

Daniel S. -

That is very clever... whenever you don't really have anything intelligent to say - and you never do - just invoke Hitler...

Hey, it works for the rest of the Republican "Wishful Thinking" trolls...

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John Wilson

6:49 pm on Sunday, November 4, 2012

AWD -

Yes, it was so good 4-years ago... banks were failing, no one could get financing for anything, the automobile industry was falling apart, Wall Street was going through its death spiral and we were losing 800,000 jobs a month... ALL brought to you by the Republican Party's geniuses, King George - now in the Cayman Islands watching Willard's money - and Cheney, whose money bought him a real person's heart to replace his robotic one.

I am sure America is just lusting after those good old days...

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Adam Wienieski

7:25 pm on Sunday, November 4, 2012

"If Romney were in power today, our fellow Americans along the East coast would be left completely on their own: the Randian self-centered way."

(I think the Kool-Aid may have turned, old Nick is starting to see Randian Objectivists under the bed.)

In direct contradiction of its stated policy FEMA failed to have even minimum quantities of bottled water or any other supplies in nearby storage facilities despite a week's warning of the impending storm. They have had to solicit bids from (gasp) the immoral private sector for basic supplies.

That's big government in action Nick, they're not happy until you're not happy. Heckuva job FEMA. When Obama boards the ship of state at least it has a propeller head.

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/11/02/FEMA-Still-Doesn-t-Have-Bottled-Water-to-Distribute-Finally-Places-Large-Order-Today-for-Delivery-Monday

Fred van der Wal

12:13 pm on Sunday, November 4, 2012

Matters little who wins this election when it comes to the republicans on this forum,it's either going to be lots of yapping with little integrity.

tom munson

12:58 pm on Sunday, November 4, 2012

O is just fighting to keep his job. Regarding jobs O is a flop.

Watts

2:48 pm on Sunday, November 4, 2012

Obama up by 4.2 in WI, according to the Real Clear Politics averaging of all polls (even if you believe some to be left or right leaning):

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/wi/wisconsin_romney_vs_obama-1871.html

But I have to wonder what any Romney voters are thinking. Who knows Romney better than anybody? How about the state who actually voted him in before, as Governor. So let's take a moment to look at how the only state who has any working knowledge about how Romney governs, is voting...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ma/massachusetts_romney_vs_obama-1804.html

The average of all polls, whether you believe some to be conservative or liberal leaning, still gives Obama a 20+ point lead. So my question is, why aren't more people paying attention to this? You can't shrug it off that it is MA and they always lean this way, because they voted Romney himself in as a Republican. The reality is that Romney can't even get close in this election in the only state that he has governed before, where the people actually know what you get if you vote for Romney. If he was the success that he pretends to be in MA, don't you think that he would be leading in MA or at the very least, have a close race going on there?

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Steve ®

2:57 pm on Sunday, November 4, 2012

Averaging the polls is the worst measure. Are you really that confused that ma is a liberal hell hole that votes for liberal presidents? This daily kos talking point is getting old

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John Wilson

4:24 pm on Sunday, November 4, 2012

Steve ® -

IF you didn’t like the Kos, you’ll LOVE this…

"In 2008, statistician Nate Silver, who runs the New York Times' FiveThirtyEight poll aggregation blog, correctly predicted all 35 Senate races and 49 out of 50 states' presidential election results (he miscalled Indiana, by a one-percent margin). Somewhat less well-known is Emory University political science professor Drew Linzer, who runs the site Votamatic. Both models, and the many more included in this category, use a smorgasbord of data, some historical and much live-updating, to build forecast models. This means tracking and averaging and assigning weights to various state and national polls, incorporating various felt economic indicators, surveying prediction markets, and so on.

What bothers many about these sites is that they tend to show an overwhelming advantage to the President's reelection campaign. As of this morning, FiveThirtyEight predicts that the President has a 85.1 percent of winning the 2012 election, with a predicted 306.9 electoral votes. If you think that's bold, Votamatic pegged the President's electoral likelihood at 332 votes. Both are a far cry away from the national polls, and even prediction markets.

http://www.policymic.com/articles/18183/presidential-polls-should-you-trust-nate-silver-538-intrade-or-rasmussen-polls

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Watts

4:47 pm on Sunday, November 4, 2012

Actually, they are not a far cry from anything. The only thing that people see in conflict, that they can reconcile in their head, is the variance between state polls and the national polling. I think that it is pretty easy to understand, but most people still don't. I'll try to explain it here. In 2008, we a perfect storm happening. First, we had the end of our 8 year national nightmare (the George W years), coming to a close. Then we had an unknown variable, which was the potential to break the racial ceiling for the presidency. Both factors put already blue states into excessively blue states and red states in the South, showed unusual support for Obama and increased turn out for him even in states that he did not ultimately win. So the national polls now are showing the ebbing of those two tides that had rose in 2008 in non competitive states, back to where they normally would be. But that loss of support in states that are already predestined to be voting for or against a Democratic candidate to begin with, are not the voters that will be predicting this election. Now we flip to the electoral college and swings states and that is all that is going to get you the votes that you need. Rent the movie Moneyball and watch the scene early in the movie when Jonah Hill explains the flaw in how mangers had been thinking. Nate SIlver literally is one of these moneyball guys and the general public still isn't following this thinking. But these odds really are correct.

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Watts

4:50 pm on Sunday, November 4, 2012

@steve

Please enlighten us as to what you see as the better way. I am sure that you hold a level of intelligence that far surpasses all of the smartest statisticians in the country, so please share how you calculate things. Or are you just kind of going with your gut and that is what we should all be listening to?

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Adam Wienieski

7:50 pm on Sunday, November 4, 2012

The candidate who wins Ohio has won the last 11 presidential races. Early voting in Ohio has self-identified democrats down 154,911 from 2008 and self-identified republicans up 108,345 from 2008 for a swing of 263,256. Obama's total margin of victory against McCain that year was only 262,224. Way to go O-H-I-O.

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John Wilson

9:20 pm on Sunday, November 4, 2012

Adam Wienieski -

Only in your "Wishful Thinking" mind...

EARLY VOTING:

[8 hours ago…]
"So far, Democratic voters outnumber Republicans in Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio. Republicans have the edge in Colorado."

http://www.wfmj.com/story/19994154/obama-seems-to-have-early-voter-lead-in-key-states

[20 hours ago…]
"So far, Democratic voters outnumber Republicans in Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio - five states that could decide the election, if they voted the same way. Republicans have the edge in Colorado, which Obama won in 2008."

http://seattletimes.com/html/politics/2019593399_apusearlyvoting.html

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John Wilson

9:30 pm on Sunday, November 4, 2012

Adam Wienieski -

The only problem with the Plethora of "Wishful Thinkers" attacking Nate Silver's methodology or statistical model or Nate himself, is… no one else even comes close to his accuracy in predicting Political Election RESULTS!

Sour grapes, hope and “Wishful Thinking” just doesn’t change the FACTS…

Veryvila

4:08 pm on Sunday, November 4, 2012

President Obama has been successful in turning the country around after eight years of wars, corruption, greed and republican rubber stamping all spending. None of the funds were for Americans to improve the infrastructure or improve job opportunities. It was all for corporate greed, with no regulations. I remember well the lies from the Bush administration about Iraq. My husband ended up in Iraq for a year with the Army. I will never support the Grover Norquist pledging republican party for the wealthy to never pay more taxes. No ones health care costs have gone up because of the Affordable Care Act. It has not gone into effect to cause any increases. But your insurance companies sure can be gouging you and that has nothing to do with the health care that will be available starting in 2014. Young people are now covered on their parent's health care plans. Many improvements have been made to Medicare and it has been extended for several years by cutting out fraud, waste and abuse.

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John Wilson

4:28 pm on Sunday, November 4, 2012

Veryvila -

Kudos!

You should remember, though, that Republicans only understand "Wishful Thinking" NOT FACTS!

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Daniel S.

5:30 pm on Sunday, November 4, 2012

Young kids are now covered under parents healthcare plans . . . . why? Why don't they get jobs and pay for there own healthcare, I have since I was 18. Is it because there are very few jobs available, especially full-time that provide healthcare? Something is really wrong in the USA, Obama hasn't fixed anything except for his retirement fund and helped out those who are too lazy to take an available job to put food on the table.

Adam Wienieski

6:11 pm on Sunday, November 4, 2012

Here's a fun fact that demonstrates the effectiveness of Obama's economic policies:

Since January, 2009 for every net new job created the country added 75 people to the food stamp rolls.

Fred van der Wal

6:20 pm on Sunday, November 4, 2012

@Daniel S. I have no problem have my kids under my healthcare coverage;They go to collage and I get a better paying career then working at age 18 and get no where.
Getting their own healthcare is secondary and a privilege for parents to help their kids into the world.

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Daniel S.

6:29 pm on Sunday, November 4, 2012

And look how much better the world is today than it was 40, 20 or 10 years ago, thanks to college educations . . . . oh, it isn't . . . oh well : (

Sharpie

6:32 pm on Sunday, November 4, 2012

We now have with Mr. Romney even more torture tactics for interrogations, and both Obama and Romney approve of drone strikes that kill innocent civilians, military commissions, the NDAA 2012 indefinite detention of American citizens w/o charges or trials, assassinations of American citizens w/o charge or trial by Presidential executive order, and the anti-civil liberties Patriot Act all approved by both Obama and Romney. Frankly, why would anyone be cheering for this anti-American slashing of civil liberties? Becoming more barbarian is not something most Americans would condone. Humanity should be seeking something better of itself. Gary Johnson of the Libertarian ticket has a financial plan for America, will restore civil liberties, and bring the world some much-needed peace to our violent-driven world. It is more than enough time on our planet for sanity to be reigning.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/28/us/politics/election-will-decide-future-of-interrogation-methods-for-terrorism-suspects.html?_r=0

Former wildly successful Gov of New Mexico, Gary Johnson, will be debating the very articulate and thoughtful Dr. Jill Stein (Green party) in the final Presidential debate scheduled for Tues. evening, Oct. 30th at 9:00 Eastern time. Tune in Tuesday night next week in to hear what you are missing - a different vision on how to get out of the mess we're in.

http://freeandequal.org/?v=1

http://www.garyjohnson2012.com

Sharpie

7:34 pm on Sunday, November 4, 2012

"Consider Gary Johnson
This is not an election of Romney vs. Obama. This is anti-Obama vs. anti-Romney. No one really likes either candidate. No one is inspired by either of them. As a Republican, clearly Obama is not on your team, but neither is Romney. Certainly not our team leader."

Both Romney and Obama will drive full speed towards the cliff. The only difference is Obama will drive a little faster, but it's a negligible difference, and certainly not one worth spending energy on.

Our only hope to prevent a bleak dystopian scenario from unfolding is to send a powerful NO!! in the face of the forces that are pushing us there."

Read more:
http://garyjohnsongrassrootsblog.blogspot.com/2012/11/washington-times-opinion-suggestion-for.html

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Michael McClusky

7:36 pm on Sunday, November 4, 2012

@Sharpie I could not have said it better.

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John Wilson

7:56 pm on Sunday, November 4, 2012

Sharpie -

You really are not the brightest bulb on any block are you?

NObama 2012

7:51 pm on Sunday, November 4, 2012

Where are these Gary Johnson trolls coming from? I can't remember ever seeing Gary Johnson's name appear on these comment boards all year. I think we have some Progressives trying to stir the 3rd Party pot. Won't work...Gary Johnson is a nutcase who hates Jews and has hardly any support in America. I know a guy who voted for Gary Johnson, he hates Jews as well. I've never met a Gary Johnson, Ron Paul type that doesn't hate Jewish people.

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Michael McClusky

7:59 pm on Sunday, November 4, 2012

NObama 2012 I am a Gary Johnson supporter and I don't hate Jews. What I do hate is the fact that the Republicans and Democrats are both so financially irresponsible. I also can't stand the fact that both of those parties have been bought out by dark money. Am I clear?

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DICK STEINBERG

8:20 pm on Sunday, November 4, 2012

from these post there are guys who just hate.

Veryvila

9:21 pm on Sunday, November 4, 2012

There are so many reasons not to elect Mitt Romney. The main one being his pathological lying and refusal to do anything but lie. Facts don't agree with you republicans, but facts they are that Romney was not the least bit bipartisan in MA and is now claiming that he was and would be. Romney is a one percenter for the one percent and he will return the country to the extremely failed policies of the Bush administration and has hired many of those Bush advisers. President Obama came into office with the economy in the tank. Banks were in meltdown. People were losing jobs and the country was in a serious recession. President Obama got to work with the Recovery Act to help every state to keep their employees in jobs and working to create jobs. Two million jobs were created. Saving the American car industry was a risky move but one that President Obama took for all the workers and people whose jobs are connected to the car industry. Thousands of jobs were saved and the auto industry is back. Romney is lying about Jeep moving jobs to China which is a lot of nerve since China is one of Romney's favorite places to ship jobs leaving Americans without jobs or hope. Jeep is doing great in America and will be hiring more workers to keep up with their production. We are not going to allow republicans to allow the Grover Norquist fealty pledgers against taxes to be in charge with their agenda to end all the programs that Americans need to live as senior citizens.

JW

10:57 pm on Sunday, November 4, 2012

Obama is a talker. But we need someone to walk the walk, rather than talk the talk. No matter what he inherited... he did not do nearly enough with it... and his biggest accomplishment, Obamacare, is one where he inserted his pet cause (redistribution of wealth) to muck it up. Rather than focusing on policies to reduce costs for all classes, he focused on policies to assist the lower class via not passing savings on to other classes. There was a time article on this, regarding when Obamacare goes into effect it is projected to have no positive impact on middle class families. They expect no negative impact either... but that still leaves it a non-solution. In the past week, I talked to someone who had a toenail drilled into to relieve pressure... and it was a $1000 bill. Another person had a digestive exam where they were put under and had a camera inserted to check things out. For a one hour exam, that bill was $14,000. THAT is all at the heart of what is wrong with healthcare... both services were billed at a rate that I tend to think is a good 10 times what it should be. One was a 5 minute procedure at $1000... the other was an hour procedure that could have paid 100 people $100 for that hour AND still had $4000 left over for any equipment rental or drug costs. THAT stuff is what is wrong and Obamacare is not focused on that.

Anyway, Obama is a big talker... I hope on Nov 6th we release his obligations as president and free him up for the talk circuit!

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Daniel S.

11:16 pm on Sunday, November 4, 2012

Thanx JW, from the beginning I was thinking similarly; Healthcare costs are out of control. Who cares if you can afford insurance, if you cannot afford the balance after the insurance paid their share? The cost of care is what needs to be made affordable!

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